3 Things We Know About Harvest 2026

If I were to have written an outlook for harvest 2026 ten days ago, it would have been totally different from today. Once again, wine has taught us to never take anything as a given and to constantly adapt our expectations given a change of circumstance. So here’s what we know so far…

1) The growing season has been warm, with Growing Degree Days (GDD, or how we measure how warm a vintage is) through August running 16% above the 30 year average, but 16% below the recent very warm year of 2015. My goal is always to keep alcohol, acidity, and tannin in balance and we have a better shot of doing so in a year with growing degree days like this than in a year in which growing degree days are either so high that alcohols will be much higher than acidity and tannin levels (e.g., 2015) or so low that alcohols will be much lower than acidity and tannin levels (e.g., 2011) What this may mean for the wine is that we’ll have a ripe and balanced profile, consistent with recent vintages.

2) The cool conditions and rain of the first week of September jammed on the breaks and slowed ripening down. This is outstanding news as it means that we can let grapes hang to develop more mature flavors and phenolic ripeness, which are the precursors to tannin complexity. If this had not happened, we would have been forced to pick based on high sugar levels even if flavors weren’t fully developed. What this may mean for the wine is that we’ll have balance and more flavor complexity.

3) The concern with rain is that it increases the potential for disease pressure. Thus far, I have seen this only at one site and the rest remain unaffected. What this may mean for the wine is that crop levels should remain on track, so quantity will be roughly as expected.

Taken together, I’m optimistic that we may be able to make ripe, balanced, and complex wines.